Though we are still not seeing prices or activity at levels experienced during the spring of 2017, activity continues at the healthy levels experienced during 2013 and 2014.

Average prices have risen for the 5^th consecutive month.  Prospective home buyers are coming to terms with the changing market.  They have come to the realization that waiting any longer creates a two-pronged challenge – increasing home prices and increasing borrowing costs.  As a result, many understand that now is the time to buy. 

Move up sellers are coming to the realization that the price of their current home is not as high as it was in the spring of 2017, however, since they are moving up market they can get a relative deal on their new home.  Also, if move-up sellers wait too much longer, they could suffer the two-pronged challenge described earlier, on a larger home, as they too become buyers once they sell their current home.

The key factors leading to the increasing prices continues to be the combination of strong employment growth, historically low interest rates, and strong population growth*.

Brampton

Averages prices have increased, consecutively in each of the last 5 months.  May average prices ($708,944) are 9.2% higher than December of 2017. This was driven by strong increases in detached homes.  The May average price is down by only 7.3% from the all-time high set in March of 2017.   

Supply remains tight at just over 2 months of inventory on hand.  This tight supply will continue to create upward pressure on average prices moving forward. 

Days on market have remained under 20 which represents a significant from the beginning of the year, when days on market reached 31.

Sales in May are down by 25% from May of 2017, however, this is a significant improvement from earlier in the year when sales were down up to 38% over the prior year.  The current level of sales is consistent with the strong, yet more balanced activity experienced in 2013 and 2014.

Mississauga

The average price in May was $726,897, which was up 7.6% from December of 2017.  This increase was driven by an 8.5% increase in condo-apartments.   Detached prices were down 4.5% compared to Dec 2017.  The May average price is down by 9% from the all-time high set in March of 2017. 

Supply remains tight at just over 2 months of inventory. This supply will continue to create upward pressure on average price moving forward.

Days on market remained under 20, which was significant improvement from the 32 days on market experienced earlier in the year.  

Sales are down by 23%, which represents an improvement from earlier in the year when sales were down as much as 38% compared to 2017. The current level of sales is consistent with the strong, yet more balanced activity experienced in 2013 and 2014.

Caledon

The average price in May was $915,313.  As there are relatively very few transactions that occur in Caledon on a monthly basis, the average price is significantly swayed by the mix of properties as opposed to a reflection of the trending of price.  A clearer picture of Caledon’s market will appear over the upcoming months.

Supply continues to be tight with only 2.9 months of inventory on hand at the end of May which is consistent with April.  Both months represent a considerable tightening of supply from 4 months of inventory at the end of January.  This tightening of supply should create upward pressure on average price moving forward.

Days on market improved significantly in May to 22, from the 38 days on market experienced at the beginning of the year. 

Sales are down 19% year to date to the end of May compared to the same period last year.

Conclusion 

As we move further into the year, growth in sales and selling prices is expected to continue.  Expect stronger price growth in the comparatively more affordable townhouse and condominium apartment segments.  This being said, listings supply will likely remain below historical average in many neighborhoods in the Peel, which, over the long-term, could put more upward pressure on prices across all market segments.

 *Some Key Economic indicators for a healthy real estate forecast: 

Peel Region expected to grow by 500,000 people in next 2 decades https://www.insauga.com/500000-new-residents-expected-in-mississauga-and-surrounding-cities-over-next-two-decades

Employment in May 2018 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180608/dq180608a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3587-2&indgeo=0

Interest rates unchanged in May https://globalnews.ca/news/4241700/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-may-30-2018/

Key economic indicators – Statistics Canada https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/start

Consumer confidence index https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

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